বুধবার, ২৫ জানুয়ারি, ২০১২

Falkenblog: Insurance and Pooling Equilibria

In the bad old days, insurance was a way to smooth cash flows from improbable but large expenses: fire, health, auto mishaps. Through repetitious metonymy, 'health care insurance' and health care are now synonymous.

I was struck by Obama's mention last night that:

I will not go back to the days when health insurance companies had unchecked power to cancel your policy, deny your coverage, or charge women differently than men.

Emprically, women use more health care, they cost more, estimates are around 35%. Some of this is childbearing, but a lot of it comes from the simple fact they go to the doctor more often (notice women see their gynecologists rather regularly, whereas men have no comparable service). So now charging women more for something they use more of is illegal because it discriminates.

Interestingly, in the 1970's there was a law passed so that upon retirement, the annual payments to female retirees had to be the same as for male retirees even though women live longer, statistically. That is, the present value of their retirement packages, by law, are larger for women than men.

Government seems to be doing more and more to make it difficult to prevent 'pooling equilibria', cases where different types of applicants get into a pool, eventually pushing out the 'better' or 'lower cost' people who don't want to subsidize the other group. For example, due to legal rulings, it is now very difficult to give job applicants explicit aptitude tests, even though this would be very useful, and avoid the charade from those Microsoft/Google IQ tests given verbally. Interestingly, Nobel Laureate and prominent Big Government advocate Joe Stiglitz's most famous paper relates to an inefficiency from a pooling equilibrium, and his take-away was that markets were inefficient because of this problem. In practice, government encourages pooling equilibrium where it was never a problem before by preventing rational discrimination based on projected costs/benefits based on observable characteristics.

While the equilibrium efficiency loss in Stiglitz-Weiss is abstract, it usually creates something pretty simple, as if you can imagine what would happen to insurance if it could not price based on risk and allowed people to opt out: healthy people would leave in droves, which is why Obama-care made insurance mandatory. Think about the lawsuits on disparate impact for mortgage lending in the 1990s, where whites were rejected less often than blacks, and this was presumed discriminatory (in an evil way), and so the only way to make unequal groups equal is to stop measuring them so carefully, which led to simply striking the whole downpayment/credit quality anachronism.

It's rather funny that Stiglitz's main theoretical contribution to the academic literature is so starkly in contrast to not just his politics but his obsession, which is increasing the size and scope of government which prioritizes preventing firms from rationally discriminating. Remember that in Stiglitz's model, like everything else in this literature (he didn't invent it), failure to discriminate types somewhat known by participants is what causes all the problems, the 'bad equilibria.' I guess that highlights no one takes these models very seriously--change one assumption here or there, different result.

Source: http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2012/01/insurance-and-pooling-equilibria.html

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TRW Automotive Remains Significantly Undervalued - Seeking Alpha

As part of our process, we perform a rigorous discounted cash-flow methodology that dives into the true intrinsic worth of companies. In TRW Automotive's (TRW) case, we think the firm is undervalued. Our fair value estimate is $55 per share, and our report on TRW Automotive and other companies can be found here).

For some background, we think a comprehensive analysis of a firm's discounted cash-flow valuation, relative valuation versus industry peers, as well as an assessment of technical and momentum indicators is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy. This process culminates in what we call our Valuentum Buying Index (click here for more information on our methodology), which ranks stocks on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best.

If a company is undervalued both on a DCF and on a relative valuation basis and is showing improvement in technical and momentum indicators, it scores high on our scale. TRW Automotive scores a respectable 7 on our scale (reflecting its undervaluation and very bullish technicals).

Our Report on TRW Automotive

click to enlarge images:

Investment Considerations

Investment Highlights

TRW Automotive earns a ValueCreation rating of excellent, the highest possible mark on our scale. The firm has been generating economic value for shareholders for the past few years, a track record we view very positively. Return on invested capital (excluding goodwill) has averaged 16.8% during the past three years.

Although we think the firm's DCF valuation indicates a potential attractive investment opportunity, we'd be more comfortable investing in the firm if it was more attractively priced on a relative basis versus
peers as well.

TRW Automotive's cash flow generation and financial leverage are at decent levels, in our opinion. The firm's free cash flow margin and debt-to-EBITDA metrics are about what we'd expect from an average firm in our coverage universe.

The firm posts a VBI score of 7. We don't find the firm that attractive based on this measure, and we'd grow more constructive if it registered an 8 or higher on our scale.

The firm's technicals look very attractive. If current prices hold, the firm's moving averages could create a golden cross, a very bullish technical pattern.

Click to enlarge:

Economic Profit Analysis

The best measure of a firm's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) with its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread. TRW Automotive's 3-year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 16.8%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 10.4%. As such, we assign the firm a ValueCreation rating of excellent. In the chart below, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome, in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate.

Click to enlarge:

Cash Flow Analysis

Firms that generate a free cash flow margin (free cash flow divided by total revenue) above 5% are usually considered cash cows. TRW Automotive's free cash flow margin has averaged about 3.2% during the past 3 years. As such, we think the firm's cash flow generation is relatively medium. The free cash flow measure shown above is derived by taking cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and differs from enterprise free cash flow (FCFF), which we use in deriving our fair value estimate for the company. At TRW Automotive, cash flow from operations increased about 34% from levels registered two years ago, while capital expenditures fell about 39% over the same time period.

Valuation Analysis

Our discounted cash flow model indicates that TRW Automotive's shares are worth between $37.00 - $73.00 each. The margin of safety around our fair value estimate is driven by the firm's high ValueRisk rating, which is derived from the historical volatility of key valuation drivers. The estimated fair value of $55 per share represents a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 8.7 times last year's earnings and an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of about 4.7 times last year's EBITDA. Our model reflects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 3.7% during the next five years, a pace that is higher than the firm's 3-year historical compound annual growth rate of -0.7%. Our model reflects a 5-year projected average operating margin of 9.2%, which is above TRW Automotive's trailing 3-year average. Beyond year five, we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 3.4% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. For TRW Automotive, we use a 10.4% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows.

Click to enlarge:

Margin of Safety Analysis

Our discounted cash flow process values each firm on the basis of the present value of all future free cash flows. Although we estimate the firm's fair value at about $55 per share, every company has a range of probable fair values that's created by the uncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future was known with certainty, we wouldn't see much volatility in the markets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values. Our ValueRisk rating sets the margin of safety or the fair value range we assign to each stock. In the graph below, we show this probable range of fair values for TRW Automotive. We think the firm is attractive below $37 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above $73 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm.

Click to enlarge:

Future Path of Fair Value

We estimate TRW Automotive's fair value at this point in time to be about $55 per share. As time passes, however, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The chart below compares the firm's current share price with the path of TRW Automotive's expected equity value per share over the next three years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year three represents our best estimate of the value of the firm's shares three years hence. This range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of $79 per share in Year three represents our existing fair value per share of $55 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the same way, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range.

Click to enlarge:

Pro Forma Financial Statements

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/321384-trw-automotive-remains-significantly-undervalued

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Foreign Oil Imports Drop As U.S. Drilling Ramps Up

Natural gas is burned off next to an oil well being drilled at a site  near Tioga, N.D., in August. U.S. oil production started increasing a few years ago and is predicted to continue to rise, reducing the country's dependence on oil imports. Karen Bleier/AFP/Getty Images

Natural gas is burned off next to an oil well being drilled at a site near Tioga, N.D., in August. U.S. oil production started increasing a few years ago and is predicted to continue to rise, reducing the country's dependence on oil imports.

Since President Obama took office, the U.S. has made considerable progress in overcoming a problem that has bedeviled presidents since Richard Nixon ? dependence on foreign oil.

When U.S. oil dependence peaked at 60 percent in 2005, then-President George W. Bush said the country had a serious problem and was "addicted to oil."

Oil imports were down to 49 percent in 2010, and the Energy Information Agency predicted Tuesday that imports would drop to 36 percent by 2035.

"Reliance on imported petroleum we expect to decline dramatically over the next 20 years," says Howard Gruenspecht, acting administrator of the Energy Information Agency.

Fueling The U.S.: Supply And Demand

The chart below shows both the consumption and the domestic supply of liquid fuels in the U.S. in millions of barrels per day. The difference between these amounts, the area shaded in yellow, indicates the amount of liquid fuel the U.S. imports to make up the difference between demand and domestic supply. By 2035, the U.S. Energy Information Agency expects the U.S. will only need to import 36 percent of its oil.

This reflects in part the fact that after decades of decline, U.S. oil production started posting gains in recent years. The Energy Information Agency predicted the increase will continue, and by 2020, the oil production rate would be up 11 percent to 6.7 million barrels per day.

"That's really reversing a long slide," says Gruenspecht.

Criticism For Blocking U.S. Production

Ironically, this breakthrough is happening during the administration of a president who has been steadily criticized for blocking domestic petroleum production. Republicans have attacked him for slowing off-shore drilling in the Gulf of Mexico after the BP spill and for deciding not to open some federal lands in the West to oil and gas development.

But energy experts make it clear that regardless of the criticism, a positive trend is underway that should change the way the county thinks of itself and its relationship with unfriendly, oil-rich nations.

"We have a complete change in the historic view that we are helplessly dependent on energy imports, oil imports going forward," says John Deutch, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology chemistry professor and former CIA chief who advises the Obama administration on energy.

Deutch says the situation is even brighter than it seems, because Canada could supply most of U.S. oil imports in the future.

We have a complete change in the historic view that we are helplessly dependent on energy imports, oil imports going forward.

"I frankly find Canadians as reliable as Californians [in] providing us with energy, so you should not include the Canadians in that import dependence," Deutch says.

Expansion On Private Lands

Oil industry executives agree that the outlook is rosy.

"Past assumptions of oil and gas scarcity that went into business strategic plans, governmental policies and public attitudes are out of date," says James Mulva, chairman and CEO of ConocoPhillips. "The major production trends have certainly been reversed."

The breakthrough comes as oil companies are using hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, to blast open the rock that contains the oil.

According to Mulva, more rigs are drilling for oil in the United States today than have been for 25 years.

But here is where the criticism of President Obama comes in: Mulva stresses that most of these rigs are on private property. They are drilling into places like the Bakken formation, which lies under parts of North Dakota and Montana.

"Had this been government land, we would likely still be awaiting drilling permits or fighting lawsuits from NGOs or outright drilling bans enacted from Congress," Mulva says.

Using Less Fuel

Still, increasing U.S. oil production is only one reason that reliance on foreign oil is waning.

Another is that Americans are using less fuel.

The Energy Information Agency says overall U.S. oil consumption has declined since 2005. The agency predicts it will grow only very slowly over the next two decades, because of policies that boost the fuel efficiency of cars and increase the use of renewable fuels like ethanol.

President Obama deserves credit for those policies. So does his predecessor, President Bush.

The EIA's Gruenspecht says America's dependency on foreign oil will ease even more than the agency's forecasts suggest if Obama goes forward with his proposal to further tighten fuel economy in cars for model years 2017 to 2025.

Source: http://www.npr.org/2012/01/24/145719179/foreign-oil-imports-drop-as-u-s-drilling-ramps-up?ft=1&f=1007

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Hip Fracture Patients Often Have Other Health Problems (HealthDay)

MONDAY, Jan. 23 (HealthDay News) -- Weight loss and malnutrition are among the medical conditions that increase treatment costs and the length of hospital stays for older adults with hip fractures, a new study finds.

More than 250,000 hip fractures occur each year in the United States, often resulting in hospitalization, surgery, extended periods of rehabilitation and/or long-term disability, and admission to a nursing home.

This study looked at coexisting medical conditions (comorbidities) that affect treatment costs and the length of hospitalization for hip fracture patients. The researchers examined 2007 hospital discharge data from 32,440 patients treated at more than 1,000 hospitals in 40 states. Nearly 80 percent of the patients were 75 or older and 72 percent were women.

Most of the patients had two or three comorbidities. Only about 5 percent had no other health conditions. High blood pressure affected 67 percent of the patients and was by far the most common comorbid condition.

Other comorbidities included: deficiency anemias (disorders caused by a lack of certain nutrients, such as iron or vitamin B12); fluid and electrolyte disorders; chronic lung diseases; diabetes; neurological disorders; hypothyroidism; and congestive heart failure.

The researchers found that comorbidities significantly increase treatment cost and length of hospital stay. Hip fracture patients who were very thin or malnourished had the greatest increased costs, following by those with pulmonary circulatory disorders that affect blood flow to and from the lungs.

Recent weight loss or malnutrition also had the greatest impact on hospitalization, increasing the length of hospital stay by 2.5 days. Hospital stays were about a day longer for patients with congestive heart failure or pulmonary circulation disorders.

Other comorbidities that lengthened hospital stay were fluid and electrolyte disorders, paralysis, and conditions contributing to blood clots.

The study was published in the Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery.

Two major issues require further investigation, according to Dr. Kevin Black, one of the study authors and professor and chair of orthopedics and rehabilitation at Penn State College of Medicine.

"First, we need to better understand the total cost of caring for hip-fracture patients. Our study focused only on acute hospitalization, but care typically extends well beyond this, since many patients are discharged to rehabilitation and skilled-nursing facilities," Black said in a journal news release.

"Second, this study did not investigate the quality or outcomes of care. As our population ages, there is reason to believe that the number of hip fractures will increase. Having a better understanding of the comorbidities that affect hip-fracture patients hopefully will lead to the development of strategies to more effectively care for these patients."

More information

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has more about hip fractures among older adults.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/health/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/hsn/20120123/hl_hsn/hipfracturepatientsoftenhaveotherhealthproblems

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Steve Jobs rumored to have explored Lytro light-field camera company as part of his plan to re-invent photography

According to Adam Lashinsky, author of the upcoming book, Inside Apple, Steve Jobs arranged a meeting with Ren Ng, a Stanford graduate and the CEO of the incredible Lytro camera company.


Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheIphoneBlog/~3/Yjt-NpPP0l0/story01.htm

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মঙ্গলবার, ২৪ জানুয়ারি, ২০১২

Newt Gingrich: Let's Go To The Moon Permanently, Get To Mars ASAP (VIDEO)

Space travel is an issue that will likely come in few states besides Florida this primary season, but both Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich were quick to recognize the importance of the Space Coast is to this state and agreed that the issue is important for the country.

"It should certainly be a priority," said Romney when asked whether, during a time of reduced federal spending, space exploration should be a focus.

"What we have now is a president who does not have a vision or a mission for NASA. As a result of that, there are people on the space coast that are suffering. Florida itself is suffering as a result," he said.

Gingrich added that he would like to go back to the moon "permanently" and get to Mars "as rapidly as possible, building a series of space stations and developing commercial space."

Romney and Gingrich both said that space exploration should be a collaborative effort between the federal government and the private sector.

"From NASA, from the Air Force space program, from our leading universities and from commercial enterprises -- bring them together, discuss a wide range of options for NASA and then have NASA not just funded by the federal government but by commercial enterprises," Romney added. "Have research done in our universities. Let's have a collaborative effort with business, with government, with military and with our educational institutions. Have a mission."

Gingrich was then asked whether he would "put more tax dollars into the space race and commit to putting an American on mars instead of relying on the private sector."

"Well, the two are not incompatible," he replied. "For example, most of the great breakthroughs in aviation were as a result of prizes. [Charles] Lindbergh flew to Paris for a $25,000 prize. I would like to see vastly more of the money spent encouraging the private sector into a very aggressive experimentation. I would like a leaner NASA. I don't think building a bigger bureaucracy and having a greater number of people sit in rooms and talk gets you there. But if we had a series of goals that we were prepared to offer prizes for, there is every reason to believe you have folks in this country and around the world who would put up an amazing amount of money and would make the space coast literally hum with activity because they'd be drawn to achieve prizes."

Also on HuffPost:

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Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/23/newt-gingrich_n_1225895.html

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EU formally adopts Iran oil embargo (AP)

BRUSSELS ? The European Union imposed an oil embargo against Iran on Monday and froze the assets of its central bank, part of sanctions to pressure Iranian officials into resuming talks on the country's controversial nuclear program.

The measures, approved in Brussels by the EU's 27 foreign ministers, include an immediate embargo on new contracts for crude oil and petroleum products. Existing contracts with Iran will be allowed to run until July.

Some 80 percent of Iran's foreign revenue comes from oil exports and any measures or sanctions taken that affect its ability to export oil could hit hard at its economy. With about 4 million barrels per day, Iran is the second largest producer in OPEC.

Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful, but the United States and other nations suspect it is trying to build nuclear weapons. Iran is now under several rounds of U.N. sanctions for not being more forthcoming about its nuclear program.

Two Iranian lawmakers, meanwhile, stepped up threats that their country would close the strategic Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's crude flows, in retaliation for the EU oil sanctions.

Lawmaker Mohammad Ismail Kowsari, deputy head of Iran's influential committee on national security, said Monday the strait "would definitely be closed if the sale of Iranian oil is violated in any way."

Tensions over the strait and the potential impact its closure would have on global oil supplies and the price of crude have weighed heavily on consumers and traders. The U.S. and Britain both have warned Iran not to disrupt the world's oil supply.

Many analysts doubt that Iran would maintain a blockade for long, but any supply shortages would cause world oil supplies to tighten temporarily.

For its part, the United States has enacted, but not yet put into force, sanctions targeting Iran's central bank and, by extension, the country's ability to be paid for its oil.

After news of the EU move, benchmark crude for March delivery rose 90 cents on the day to $99.23 a barrel in early morning European time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Brent crude was down 35 cents at $109.51 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange in London.

EU diplomats are calling the measure part of a twin track approach toward Iran: increase sanctions to discourage what they suspect is Iran pursuit of nuclear weapons but to emphasize at the same time the international community's willingness to talk.

Iran says its nuclear program is exclusively for peaceful purposes, but EU foreign ministers are not convinced.

"The recent start of operations of enrichment of uranium to a level of up to 20 percent in the deeply buried underground facility in Fordo near Qom further aggravates concerns about the possible military dimensions to Iran's nuclear program," they said in a statement.

That accelerated enrichment is in violation of six U.N. Security Council resolutions and 11 resolutions by the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency, "and contributes to rising tensions in the region," the statement said.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague called the embargo part of "an unprecedented set of sanctions."

"I think this shows the resolve of the European Union on this issue," Hague said.

The EU also decided to freeze the assets of the Iranian central bank. Together, the two measures are intended not only to pressure Iran to agree to talks but also to choke off funding for its nuclear activities.

In October, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton sent a letter to Saeed Jalili, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, saying her goal was a negotiated solution that "restores international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program."

She says she has not yet received a reply.

Before Monday's decision, negotiators worked hard to try to ensure that the embargo would punish only Iran ? and not EU member Greece, which is in dire financial trouble and relies heavily on low-priced Iranian oil.

The foreign ministers agreed to a review of the effects of the sanctions, to be completed by May 1. And they agreed in principle to make up the costs Greece incurs as a result of the embargo.

"It is important to know what will happen to individual countries as a consequence of the sanctions," Ashton said before the foreign ministers' meeting in Brussels.

The National Council of Resistance of Iran, an exile group opposed to Iran's clerical regime, welcomed the new sanctions and called for their implementation without delay.

"For over two decades, the Iranian Resistance has called for comprehensive oil and financial sanctions against the religious and terrorist dictatorship ruling Iran," Maryam Rajavi, the organization's president-elect said in a statement.

She said "the five-month delay in putting these sanctions in full force provides a significant amount of time for this regime to implement its ominous plots."

The council, founded in 1981, is considered a terrorist organization by the United States, but not by the European Union.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle said it was critical that action be taken.

"This is not a question of security in the region," he said. "It is a question of security in the world."

____

Raf Casert contributed to this report

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/topstories/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20120123/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_eu_iran

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